You can't predict the weather
From scorching hot summers to winter cold snaps, one thing noticeable is the increasingly erratic nature of weather patterns. From an infrastructure standpoint, this is especially clear in various aspects of electricity use – from customer affordability to reliability, and to the extent of when we decide to flick the switch. While we see a structural transition in energy is underway as renewable energy continues to gain penetration, there are nonetheless significant hurdles to clear in the coming years. For electricity system operators, utilities and energy infrastructure providers, building a reliable, resilient system is a substantial process.
The hum of the heater against a winter chill is one of many demands drawing on power networks. Data centres and uptake of AI, as well as the electrification of industry and vehicles are increasing demand for electricity. Concurrently, it’s also putting tremendous strain on the grid. The use of ageing infrastructure to meet these demands is an added challenge. Blackouts, such as the major event in Spain this year and South Australia in 2016, are clear examples of where these increasing strains reach a breaking point.
At the same time, weather patterns are more extreme. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), there is a significant warming trend in the Australian climate, with Australia’s average temperature increasing by 1.47 degrees Celsius since 1910. This warming is accompanied by changes in rainfall patterns, increased fire danger, and rising sea levels. Looking ahead, the BOM expects a continued increase in air temperatures, with a skew towards more heat extremes (and fewer cold extremes). The same pattern has been observed globally, with national agencies in the US, UK, Europe and elsewhere experiencing similar trends.
More extreme weather drives sharper peak demand for electricity. For example, in Australia, recent cold winter temperatures have driven spikes in demand for power, and accordingly pricing. The state of Victoria recorded a peak spot price ($/MWh) of $2,7251 on 12 June 2025, well above the prior daily peaks of -$40 to $200 recorded this year. This event is notable because the June 2025 peak price coincided with minimum temperatures reaching monthly lows of 3.6 degrees Celsius in Melbourne. With the solar energy production weak, light winds and some coal-fired generation down, the state had little choice but to use more than 13% of its expected gas for energy generation for the entire year over a three-day period in June. This episode is important to call out, as the surge in spot pricing showed that in an energy system characterised by ageing fossil fuel generation – in the form of coal and gas – and increasing penetration of renewables, very few things in the system can go wrong if we are to avoid such spikes.
This example highlights a common challenge for electricity grids in many jurisdictions; providing sufficient baseload generation (e.g. gas-fired) while transitioning to renewable or lower-carbon fuels is a tricky balance to strike. Regulators and system operators must manage the intermittency challenges of renewables to avert system shortages – and keep the lights on – while allowing for the integration of more renewables.
What we are seeing now is just the forefront of this transition in many markets. For example, looking at Australia, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) expects a steady increase in electricity consumption from today through to 2050, as seen in the chart here for the period 2025-2035.
At the same time, AEMO expects consumption of fossil fuels including gas to decline. This decline is on not only an annual basis but also in terms of maximum demand; this decline is projected to sustain a downward path from 2025 to 2040 and beyond.
This implies that other energy sources, including wind and solar, are expected to be increasingly integrated into the grid to fill this gap.
There are two things that jump out here for infrastructure investors. The first is that in the near future, gas remains key in many markets to keep power generation on track. Regulation, operational provisions at systems operators and storage infrastructure (including utility-scale batteries) still need to get up the curve, to provide for a reliable and stable grid with a high level of renewables. This transition is expected to take some time. For this reason, companies including Snam (IT) and Enbridge (CA), are expected to continue to benefit from this baseload generation picture.
The second is that we can expect to see significant capital investment at transmission and distribution companies and integrated power companies as they work to accommodate a shift in the energy mix towards renewable and lower-carbon sources while demand is rising. Companies capitalising on these investment thematics include WEC Energy (US), Eversource Energy (US), Sempra (US) and National Grid (UK).
An additional, third takeaway is the sheer criticality of the electricity grid to the way we live and to how economies function. This is self-evident but worth pointing out nonetheless – we are data-driven, rely on connectivity and cannot afford disruption to the power supply. This means the regulatory environment is likely to become more complex, which will be important for all utilities companies to navigate. We see examples of this in those markets where renewables are already a high proportion of energy generation, such as Spain, where the recent blackout is prompting a review of the system.
The transition to cleaner sources of power, and electrification, is an important structural shift of our time. Fit-for-purpose infrastructure has an important role to play in this transition, with energy utilities and energy infrastructure companies an integral part of this picture to watch.
By Rebecca Hiscock-Croft
Infrastructure Investment Director
1 Data source: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
Important Information: This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice of any kind and you should not construe the contents of this material as legal, tax, investment or other advice. In making an investment decision, you should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and must rely on your own examination of the same and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision.
The investment program of the strategy or strategies presented herein (‘Strategy’) is speculative and may involve a high degree of risk. The Strategy is not intended as a complete investment program and is suitable only for sophisticated investors who can bear the risk of loss. The Strategy may lack diversification, which can increase the risk of loss to investors. The Strategy’s performance may be volatile. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of the Strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs and such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. This material may contain ‘forward-looking statements’. Actual events or results or the actual performance of the Strategy or any financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. The Strategy will have limited liquidity, no secondary market for interests in the Strategy is expected to develop and there are restrictions on an investor’s ability to withdraw and transfer interests in the Strategy. The management fees, incentive fees and allocation and other expenses of the Strategy will reduce trading profits, if any, or increase losses.
No representation or warranty is made with respect to the correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. No guarantee is made that such information is accurate, complete or timely and no warranty is given regarding results obtained from its use. The issuer of this material and its related entities and affiliates will not be responsible or liable for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, including loss of profits, damages, costs, claims or expenses, relating to or arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material including trading losses, loss of opportunity or incidental or punitive damages.
This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part in any circumstances. , Further information regarding any benchmark referred to herein can be found at www.magellaninvestmentpartners.com/funds/benchmark-information/. Any third-party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. (080825-#i1)
United Kingdom: This material has been prepared by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners and is distributed in the United Kingdom by Magellan Investment Partners (UK) Limited (FRN: 1037936), an appointed representative of Sentinel Regulatory Services Ltd (FRN: 1007093) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity under the provisions of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). This material does not form part of any offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for, or any solicitation of any such offer to purchase, sell or subscribe for, any shares, units or other type of investment product or service. This material or any part of it, or the fact of its distribution, is for background purposes only. This material has not been approved by a person authorised under the FSMA and its distribution in the United Kingdom and is only being made to persons in circumstances that will not constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of section 21 of the FSMA as a result of an exemption contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO) as set out below. This material is exempt from the restrictions in the FSMA as it is to be strictly communicated only to ‘investment professionals’ as defined in Article 19(5) of the FPO.
United States: This material has been prepared by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners (‘Magellan’) which is a registered investment adviser. The investment strategies described herein are distributed in the United States by Frontier Partners, Inc. (‘Frontier’), a U.S.-registered investment adviser. For the purposes of the US Securities Act 1933, Magellan and Frontier are affiliated entities. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, financial instrument or product or to provide financial services. It is not the intention of Magellan to create legal relations on the basis of information provided herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Where performance figures are shown net of fees charged to clients, the performance has been reduced by the amount of the highest fee charged to any client employing that particular strategy during the period under consideration. Actual fees may vary depending on, among other things, the applicable fee schedule and portfolio size. Fees are available upon request and also may be found in Part II of Magellan’s Form ADV.
Canada: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners (‘Magellan’). Magellan is not registered in any province in Canada. The head office of Magellan is in Sydney, Australia and all or substantially all of its assets are situated outside of Canada. Due to the foregoing, there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against Magellan.
South Africa: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners, who in accordance with FAIS Notice 55 of 2023 issued by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority, Magellan Investment Partners is exempted from section 7(1) of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (Act No. 37 of 2002). This material is not an offer in terms of Chapter 4 of the Companies Act, 2008.
UAE: This material has been produced by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners. This material is not for distribution to any other person. This material, and the information contained herein, does not constitute, and is not intended to constitute, a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (‘UAE’) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Any offer of securities or financial services is made only to a limited number of exempt Professional Investors in the UAE who fall under one of the following categories: federal or local governments, government institutions and agencies, or companies wholly owned by any of them. No securities or services have been approved by or licensed or registered with the UAE Central Bank, the Securities and Commodities Authority, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the UAE (the ‘Authorities’). The Authorities assume no liability for any investment that the named addressee makes as a Professional Investor. This material is for the use of the named addressee only and should not be given or shown to any other person (other than employees, agents or consultants in connection with the addressee’s consideration thereof). Other jurisdictions: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners.
No distribution of this material will be made in any jurisdiction where such distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. This material does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such an offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so. (080825-#W17)